On February 4, 2025, the Planning Adjustments to the National Power Development Plan for 2021-2030, with a vision to 2050 study by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) was released publicly for consultation. The revised Power Development Plan 8 (PDP8) is expected to be passed at the end of this month—a significant step forward in shaping the country’s energy future.
Understanding Peak Demand
Vietnam’s peak power demand in the afternoons is generally around 40-45 GW and nighttime demand drops to 20-25 GW. This means the revised PDP8 already accounts for more than enough capacity to meet the country’s energy needs.
From the Institute of Energy’s figure above the peak demand is rising more slowly than overall consumption. A realistic estimate for 2030 peak demand is closer to 70 GW—somewhat below the 90-100 GW demand projection in the revised PDP8. Note that the Pmax occurs in the afternoon and only in the summer.
What capacity needs to be built?
When tackling Pmax issues, solar is still a valuable resource despite its volatility because it primarily produces at time of Pmax. Therefore, it does not matter that the sun does not shine at night. There is of course seasonal variability. But again, solar produces most in the summer when the Pmax is the highest.
Likewise, wind is a very stable resource in Vietnam, although there is also seasonal variability due to Vietnam’s geographical location.
Finally, a national figure of generation and consumption hides regional differences (see figure below), and a region where there can be energy shortages cannot use surpluses in other regions (unless the transmission lines are significantly upgraded).
Do We Need to Build Everything in the Plan?
From above, we can see the Pmax will most likely not be as high as anticipated and that renewable energy (under certain circumstances) can contribute significantly to addressing the Pmax.
Therefore, we don’t necessarily need to build everything in the revised PDP8, which is already a great step in the right direction.
A Smarter Energy Roadmap for Vietnam – the spirit of PDP8 revised
The focus areas until 2030 should be:
Commercial/Industrial solutions for rooftop solar and batteries behind the meter.
Virtual Power Purchase Agreements (vPPA) to unlock wind power via the wholesale electricity market for industrial energy users.
Direct Wire Power Purchase Agreements to unlock utility-scale solar power for commercial and industrial energy users, possibly with battery solutions connected.
Massive buildout of long-distance transmission to move power from surplus to deficit regions (i.e. South to North).
Accelerate emergency utility-scale projects for domestic gas and nuclear, led by state-owned enterprises.
This approach allows EVN to focus on transmission and distribution buildout. Other state-owned companies can build emergency projects. While the private sector focuses on generation for private (primarily industrial) energy consumers.
International capital is available to support this—with little to no risk to EVN.
A Step in the Right Direction
This strategy ensures energy security, affordability, and sustainability without unnecessary financial burdens.
This is exactly what the revised PDP8 draft is showing, and this is a great move forward for Vietnam. This will still be tough to achieve but lots of opportunities.
Unfortunately, international advocacy over the past five years has often favored costly technologies that are misaligned with Vietnam’s socio-economic priorities. We will explore this further in Part 3 of our PDP8 series.
IEP is here to support businesses in navigating this transition with tailored solutions in solar, wind, DPPA, battery energy storage systems (BESS), and bioenergy.
For further information or professional inquiries, please contact: sales@indochina-ep.com
